cvirtue: (Swive!)
cvirtue ([personal profile] cvirtue) wrote2025-07-22 04:02 pm
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If the 2024 vote was corrupted, what about 2026?

Joy Reid of course makes some excellent points, and it looks like all of her "but what if" and "did you account for this quirk of voters?" questions have solid answers with data behind them.

"ETA's Nathan Taylor and independent journalist Joy Reid join Reverend Mark Thompson on the 'Make It Plain' Christian radio show (WPFW 89.3 FM) to talk election integrity, data analysis, and the risks of vote manipulation in 2024 and in the 2026 Midterms. "

Nathan starts: "People say: our systems are decentralized, so it's really difficult to change the outcome of an election. It would require a lot of work!" He goes on to say that it doesn't require altering 50 states' worth of data, it only requires altering a few counties in the swing states.

If you want to skip the introduction and greetings, start at the 3 minute mark. They had some kind of recording discontinuity at the 4:30 mark but started again quickly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IF1k1oMgNHg&t=280s

Or you may wish to read about election forensics; note that Dr. Mebane is an academic so is going to speak cautiously, but that doesn't mean he doesn't think there is a problem. Academics do this -- it's different than how most people would express things.

https://electiontruthalliance.org/breaking-election-forensics-expert-finds-vote-manipulation-concerns-in-pennsylvania/

"A leading expert in election forensics, Dr. Walter Mebane, Jr. of the University of Michigan, has found statistical evidence of vote manipulation in the 2024 U.S. election. His working report analyzing the 2024 Pennsylvania election results corroborates the findings of Election Truth Alliance’s (ETA), a non-partisan nonprofit that recently shared an analysis of election results in three counties in Pennsylvania.

Dr. Mebane states in his Pennsylvania analysis that it is possible that “the election was decided or nearly decided by malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions”.

Mebane is recognized internationally as a leading authority on election fraud detection, and his analysis of Pennsylvania employed his independent “eforensics” model. This model has been validated in professional scientific publications and has been used to evaluate the integrity of elections in countries such as Venezuela, Turkey, and Kenya."
More at the link.

So who is this guy? https://nationalpress.org/speaker/walter-mebane/

"an expert on detecting electoral fraud. He has authored numerous papers on election fraud in both the United States and Iran and developed publicly available software for fraud detection. He was announced as the Winner of Best Statistical Software Award and named a member of the first class of Fellows of the Society for Political Methodology."


Newsweek: 2024 Election Results Lawsuit Advances as Documents Requested
https://www.newsweek.com/2024-election-results-lawsuit-documents-2091077

"Judge Rachel Tanguay of the New York Supreme Court ruled in May that the allegations were serious enough for discovery to proceed. In an order filed earlier this month, Tanguay said all discovery—where the involved parties exchange information and evidence relevant to the case—must be completed within about seven months.

The complaint said that more voters had sworn in legal affidavits that they voted for independent U.S. Senate candidate Diane Sare, who is also a plaintiff, than the Board of Elections counted and certified. The complaint also cited numerous statistical anomalies in the election results, including that in multiple districts where hundreds of voters chose the Democratic candidate Kirsten Gillibrand for Senate, none voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate for president."


the Election Truth Alliance FAQ:

We continue to hear variations on “the priority is to focus on the next upcoming election”. But if election manipulation did occur in 2024, there is a risk that it may occur in future elections. Upcoming U.S. elections – local, midterms, and presidential – should be approached with clarity into the electoral process and confidence that every vote cast will be counted accurately.

https://electiontruthalliance.org/frequently-asked-questions/

Even if it were proven that the election was compromised, the law says the outcome cannot be changed. But we can look to next year.

...

If someone wants to argue with me: I'm relaying information. If you have concerns about the integrity of the data or the conclusions, you should go to the sources and ask there.

A hand recount would put any uncertainty to bed, one way or the other, and there are petitions for these in process in a few swing states.
cvirtue: CV in front of museum (Default)
cvirtue ([personal profile] cvirtue) wrote2025-07-22 02:21 pm
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Signs you can print

I made these signs myself; feel free to print them for your local demonstration, or to put on telephone poles to inform people, or whatever.

Consider watching one of the several peaceful protest strategy/training webinars that are out there. I also recommend the thursday "What's the Plan" Indivisible national webinar. (It's just a broadcast, not participatory by we hoi polloi.)

Your preferred political organization probably has printer-proportioned signs you can download and print as well.

Indivisible and MoveOn are each funding informational billboards in very Red areas.



cvirtue: CV in front of museum (Default)
cvirtue ([personal profile] cvirtue) wrote2025-07-20 09:22 pm
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Fabric printed with BAD AI designs

The merchant was advertised to me on FB, and I got interested in the Archery print, until I looked more closely at it. See all the horrible details!

Later, I explored other designs; there were many terrible ones, such as stacked books each of which had TWO SPINES -- which means they can't be OPENED!

I'm tempted to order some just for the horror/humor value.

Years ago, I failed to order Apple-Logo guipure lace yardage (meterage?) from China, which I thought would be HILARIOUS to use in a garment, but unfortunately the lawyers got to them before I actually purchased any. I search for more every couple of years, with no luck. POUT

[image: image.png]

cvirtue: CV in front of museum (Default)
cvirtue ([personal profile] cvirtue) wrote2025-07-19 10:15 pm
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Political ADHD

It's easy to get off on tangents that aren't terribly important.

That's why I send money to a few organizations that track the really key things, like not following the Constitution. Helps me return to focus. The ACLU is a good place to start.

(I don't know if people without ADHD have this problem, of course, but I sure know that my diagnosed-self definitely does.)
cvirtue: CV in front of museum (Default)
cvirtue ([personal profile] cvirtue) wrote2025-07-13 09:05 pm
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Always search for the lost needle, especially on furniture

Told the parable of

"Why You Exhaustively Search for Lost Needles
When You Lose One In A Sofa"

to one of my adult kids today, who lost a needle, but fortunately on a hardwood floor. (It still took half an hour of searching.)

In the case of the parable, nobody the night I was there knew that a needle had been lost therein.

----- Look away NOW if squeamish. -----

The needle went through C's kneecap, which was bad enough, but having a needle through the kneecap ALSO means your kneecap and knee is [ahem] PINNED in that orientation until the ER people can remove it. If you try and unbend, it is probably horribly painful, because you have an effin' ROD OF NEEDLE in it.

In this case, assuming my memory is correct, the knee was bent at a right angle, as he was leaping onto the sofa with both knees in some kind of shenanigans at the time.

I was only a guest but I tell the cautionary tale to others every few years as the occasion warrants.
cvirtue: (Swive!)
cvirtue ([personal profile] cvirtue) wrote2025-07-13 09:00 pm
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Health Data manipulation within the US Federal Government

Data manipulation within the US Federal Government. July 03, 2025

Intro from BlueSky post:

New study finds that, of those sampled, 49% of federal datasets were altered since January 2025, and the vast majority of those alterations were neither explained nor documented.

A US Department of Veterans Affairs dataset compiling veteran health-care use in 2021 was quietly amended on March 5, 2025.

...Data manipulation by the US Government, particularly when hidden, is a crisis—it makes crucial datasets untrustworthy and unusable. If the US Government secretly changes datasets for political reasons, researchers relying on the data might erroneously recommend ineffective or counterproductive interventions.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)01249-8/fulltext